Segmentation of 525 households affected by the June 24, 2026 earthquake in Venezuela, to prioritize aid based on each household’s real need — not the name of its municipality.
The magnitude 7.2–7.5 earthquake that struck north-central Venezuela in late June 2026 did not affect the population uniformly. The same seismic event produced, across the same territory, radically different damage trajectories: households that lost their home and their source of income on the same day, and neighboring households that, with lighter damage, retained much of their ability to cope.
To guide the response, Equilibrium conducted a phone-based needs survey of 525 households that experienced some form of impact in the hardest-hit municipalities. This report presents a segmentation analysis built from that survey: rather than describing general averages, it identifies subgroups of households with distinct need profiles, to enable differentiated responses.
A cluster analysis — not a manual triage criterion — grouped households by the real similarity of their situation, not by their location.
525 households in the hardest-hit municipalities: housing damage, displacement, food security, water, sanitation, health, services, protection, and aid received.
Need and vulnerability variables — not general demographics or location — plus household composition and types of aid received to date.
Combines ordinal, numerical, and categorical variables into a single distance matrix, without forcing Euclidean assumptions onto mixed data.
4 clusters selected using the silhouette coefficient, discarding solutions with groups representing less than 5% of households.
Explore the composition of the sample, the key indicators, the relative need index, and the geographic distribution of each cluster.
525 households, segmented into four profiles of unequal size. Hover over each segment.
Four metrics summarizing the gap between the most critical and the most resilient cluster. Hover over each bar to see the exact value.
Each axis is normalized against the most affected cluster in that dimension (1.00 = maximum relative need). Click a cluster in the legend to isolate it.
Vargas Municipality (La Guaira) and Bolivariano Libertador Municipality (Capital District) are home to both the most critical and the most resilient households.
Select a cluster to see its full profile: indicators, geographic concentration, and specific recommendations.
Beyond the cluster-specific response, these recommendations sustain the evidence-based prioritization approach over time.
Pool resources from different sources, with a non-repayable support window for Cluster 1 and a repayable or blended-instrument window for Cluster 4.
Organized by thematic area — shelter, food security, health, and protection — using the cluster typology as a shared criterion for territorial prioritization.
Framework agreements to rapidly activate field capacity in the municipalities with the highest concentration of Clusters 1 and 2.
Periodic reporting using the same cluster indicators as a baseline, tracking household movement between segments over time.
| Outcome indicator | Baseline | Indicative target |
|---|---|---|
| Days without access to food (avg.) | Cluster 1: 2.09 days | ≥50% reduction at 3 months |
| Food security severity index | Cluster 1: 1.83 | Convergence to Cluster 3’s level (1.24) at 6 months |
| Households with rehabilitated housing | Cluster 1: damage 2.30 | 80% of critical households assisted at 12 months |
| Access to chronic medication without barriers | Cluster 2: current barrier 1.0 | ≥60% reduction at 6 months |
| Awareness of aid pathways | Cluster 1: 2.22 (unawareness) | ≥70% reduction at 2 months |
| Upward mobility between clusters | Clusters 1 and 2 | Measurable migration toward lower-vulnerability profiles |
The June 2026 earthquake did not produce a homogeneous crisis. The 525 households analyzed fall into four distinct realities that call for four distinct instruments: liquidity and reconstruction, active outreach and continuity of care, livelihood recovery, and productive financing. Vulnerability doesn’t always match what’s visible: Cluster 2, with less structural damage, carries the highest protection risk.
The central recommendation: use the household’s cluster — not its municipality — as the unit of decision.
This interactive summary is a starting point. For deeper analysis or to cross-reference the figures with your own criteria, these resources complement the report.
